Dan North’s talk on “the Fallacy of Effectiveness” prompts me to put down the many estimation anti-patterns I’ve encountered. It also reminds me of his blog post on the Perils of Estimation.
Here they are, in alphabetical order, because none is any better than any other:
Budget-driven Estimation
Whatever estimate you come up with will be enlarged by the customer so that he can spend the rest of this year’s budget, otherwise he won’t get it again next year.
Catch-up Estimation
Scrum Master: We have 30 points of work still to do, and only 2 more sprints to do it in. How many points can we manage in a sprint?
Team: 15!
Scrum Master: But we only managed 5 last week! How many do you really think we can manage?
Team: 15!
Scrum Master: (facepalm)
Comedy-driven Estimation
As told to me by Dan from a talk he saw – if you know who it was please let me know so I can credit:
Presenter: How tall am I?
Crowd:5′8″! 5′9″! 2 metres!
Presenter: Go on, you can manage more than that. How tall am I?
Crowd: 6′2″?
Presenter: Come on! You can do better than that! HOW TALL AM I?
Crowd: (Giggles nervously.)
Presenter: Just because a project manager tells you you can do more, it doesn’t make it true.
Done-driven Estimation
A symptom of a pressured team, this method of estimating allows a pair of developers to get the story out of their stream as quickly as possible by eliminating time spent on tedious things like refactoring to make the code maintainable, deployment, manual testing, etc. Symptoms include the oft-quoted “Works on my machine.”
Done-done-driven Estimation
A good team knows, of course, that the code counts for nothing until it’s out there in production, doing the thing it was built to do. Estimates are given with this in mind, but without the help of anyone involved in production deployment, systems integration, performance testing, UAT, etc., because they’re in different teams.
Fractal Estimation
After the scope of the project has been constructed, some stories may be considered too large to fit into an iteration, so the team decide to split them into the smallest possible deliverable slices, re-estimating each slice. Of course, this is a bit like measuring the coast of Britain. The epic which was 13 points at project inception becomes 16 points of features, and 23 points of stories by the time it’s done in the sprints. Analysts wonder where this extra scope came from, while advocates of burn-down charts tuck the growing scope away somewhere where it won’t be noticed.
Goat Estimation
Asking a goat can help when you know it doesn’t really matter what you say, you’ll probably end up doing target-driven estimation anyway.
Job-driven Estimation
As practiced by residential consultancies on Time and Expenses, contract Project Managers and anyone else with an interest in seeing the project go on as long as possible.
M25 driven Estimation
“Yes, I know it took me 3 hours to get around London yesterday, but that was because there was a traffic jam on the M25. Today will be much quicker.”
Pareto Estimation
Often used by teams which have work still left over at the end of an iteration and desperately want to include the incomplete work in their velocity. Unfortunately the Pareto principle, applied to tasks, suggests that 20% of any task will take 80% of the time. Let’s hope the 20%’s not the bit that got left till last.
Post-mortem Estimation
The team chooses estimates that will allow them to avoid the post-mortem inflicted by the project manager when they missed the deadlines last time.
Promise-driven Estimation
Developer: “These estimates… they’re just estimates, right?”
PM: “Don’t let the business hear you say that!”
Like Scrum’s sprint commitments, but used for release or project planning, this estimation method often leads to three-week long project planning meetings before the project starts. Frequently occurs as a result of fixed-price contracts with first-time suppliers. Also the second time. And the third.
Star-Trek Estimation
Geordi La Forge: I told the captain I’d have this analysis done in an hour.
Scotty: How long would it really take?
Geordi La Forge: An hour!
Scotty: Oh. You didn’t tell him how long it would REALLY take, did you?
Geordi La Forge: Of course I did.
Scotty: Oh, laddie. You’ve got a lot to learn if you want people to think of you as a miracle worker.
Student Estimation
If an estimate is chosen wisely, 50% of measurements will fall under the estimate, and 50% will fall over the estimates. Strangely, nothing ever gets handed in early, no matter how inflated the estimate is.
Target Estimation
PM: How many story points can you manage this week?
Team: 10.
PM: That’s not good enough. I need you to do 12. How many can you manage this week?
Team: 12.
Velocity-driven Estimation
Once a target velocity has been established – sometimes by the team itself – the team members will find a reason as to why the work they’re capable of doing does actually add up to 12 story points. Often applied in conjunction with Fractal Estimation.
Zero-outlier Estimation
If being wrong is uncomfortable, a team will wait for the most experienced developer to “throw” their estimate first before following suit. Planning poker fixes the symptoms, but not the problem.
Finally, an approach to pairing which maximises colocation. It’s guaranteed to bring people closer to my thoughts. I can’t wait for the new batch to arrive.
If you can scan your threads when all around you
Are searching for the last response they knew
If you can kill the spammers with a button
While others must select a different view
If you can wait and not be tired of waiting
For others to get round to their replies
If email’s not the greatest thing you’re hating
And others’ weary rants are a surprise
If you don’t need to dream of working faster
And swift communication is your game
If you believe that emailing your master
And mastering your email are the same
If you can find the words that you have spoken
Within the folders chosen by your rules
If you can fix the email list that’s broken
Without the need to curse your dodgy tools
If you can start again from the beginning
And find out that your draft is not yet lost
If you must fight your inbox and you’re winning
Without your leisure time bearing the cost
If you find others accidentally bin you
Or cc you in mails they forward on
If you can laugh and even find it in you
To help discover where they might have gone
If typos with control keys never hurt you
And buttons don’t exist you fear to touch
If sanity and reason don’t desert you
When all the mailing lists become too much
If you find you can spend a single minute
And get some useful work done while you’re free
Yours is the Net and everything that’s in it -
And I guess you use a different client to me!
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