Category Archives: real options

Probably not

When working in complexity, where the right thing to do emerges and we learn by actually trying things rather than by analysis, there’s a very human instinct that happens when we think of probes to try out. I see it … Continue reading

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On Real Options and Speculative Investments

If you’ve read the awesome graphic novel, “Commitment”, you’ll know the rules of Real Options already: Options have value Options expire Never commit early unless you know why. There’s an additional rule which is sometimes added to this: Options have … Continue reading

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Yes, and…

Imagine two actors standing on stage. “I like your penguin,” the first says. The other turns round, looking at the empty space where one might imagine a penguin could be following. There are two things that can happen. Perhaps the … Continue reading

Posted in complexity, cynefin, deliberate discovery, real options | 9 Comments

How do you terminate a project in your org?

We all know that when we do something new, for the first time, we make discoveries; and all software projects (and in fact change efforts of any variety) target something new. (You can find out what that is by asking, … Continue reading

Posted in business value, capability red, deliberate discovery, real options | 1 Comment

On Epiphany and Apophany

We probe, then sense, then respond. If you’re familiar with Cynefin, you know that we categorize the obvious, analyze the complicated, probe the complex and act in chaos. You might also know that those approaches to the different domains come … Continue reading

Posted in cynefin, real options, uncertainty | 7 Comments

Disorder, or, How I Got a Black Eye

In the Cynefin framework, the Disorder domain is the one in the middle. It’s the state of not knowing what kind of causality exists. Over on the right we have the predictable domains of Simple and Complicated, and on the … Continue reading

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Estimating Complexity

Over the last few years, teaching people the Cynefin framework early on in engagements has really helped me have useful conversations with my clients about when different processes are appropriate. There’s one phrase I use a lot, which is self-evident … Continue reading

Posted in capability red, complexity, cynefin, evil hat, real options | 16 Comments